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January 2006 Premises

Created by dave. Last edited by dave, 11 years and 213 days ago. Viewed 4,054 times. #4
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This is an example of what a proportional representation-driven Senate might look like based on the results of the 2006 General Election.

Premises

(To identify these premises against future versions, these premises will be referred to as the January 2006 Premises.)

  • Candidates who are not elected to the House of Commons are grouped by party affiliation and then ranked nationally by number of votes received.
  • The 105 available Senate seats are then distributed to each party based on their percentage of the popular vote.
  • The Senators are selected in order from their party's list.
Total Votes: 14815680

Senate Roll

PartySenatorRegionVotes
Green PartyChernushenko, DavidOntario6766
Green PartyJolley, ShaneOntario6735
Green PartyRoberts, DanielleAlberta6653
Green PartyMacGillivray, MarkAlberta6573
N.D.P.Uppal, ManjeetBritish Columbia20335
N.D.P.Garrison, RandallBritish Columbia18600
N.D.P.Bocking, MikeBritish Columbia18235
N.D.P.Churley, MarilynOntario17943
N.D.P.Ryan, SidOntario17815
N.D.P.Gravelle, ClaudeOntario17668
N.D.P.Di Bartolomeo, JodyOntario17484
N.D.P.Burgis, JenniferBritish Columbia17455
N.D.P.Duncan, LindaAlberta17142
N.D.P.Crawford, MichaelBritish Columbia16417
N.D.P.Robinson, SvendBritish Columbia16372
N.D.P.Schreyer, EdManitoba16358
N.D.P.Slavin, LindaOntario16255
N.D.P.Waddell, IanBritish Columbia15570
N.D.P.McIntaggart, GerryOntario15225
N.D.P.Brown, AliceBritish Columbia14537
N.D.P.Mancini, PeterNova Scotia14396
N.D.P.Clegg, NancyBritish Columbia14306
ConservativeCallow, BobOntario28695
ConservativeYoung, TerenceOntario25099
ConservativeDechert, BobOntario23525
ConservativeCutler, AllanOntario23038
ConservativeDuncan, JohnBritish Columbia22931
ConservativeWeston, JohnBritish Columbia22881
ConservativeBrown, LoisOntario22371
ConservativeSilver, CindyBritish Columbia22023
ConservativeGretzky, AlOntario21690
ConservativeMcColeman, PhilOntario21495
ConservativeGreen, PhilOntario20827
ConservativeGosal, BalOntario20358
ConservativeLobb, BenOntario20289
ConservativeCapobianco, JohnOntario19651
ConservativeSowden, NormBritish Columbia19429
ConservativeReale, AnthonyOntario19005
ConservativeMandur, AjmerOntario18817
ConservativeKuhn, AxelOntario18691
ConservativeBarr, BrentOntario18342
ConservativeGill, RaminderOntario18121
ConservativeMazzilli, JohnOntario17914
ConservativeCarmichael, JohnOntario17908
ConservativeKerr, GregNova Scotia17223
ConservativeThomas, RondoOntario16997
ConservativeReid, Darrel RobertBritish Columbia16901
ConservativeGodue, Marie-ClaudeQuebec16863
ConservativeRogers, StephenBritish Columbia16844
ConservativeDobson, TimOntario16686
ConservativeGrunstein, MelOntario16665
ConservativeDi Paola, JoeOntario16515
ConservativeChirico, PeterOntario16511
ConservativeForseth, PaulBritish Columbia16494
ConservativeLandry, JeanQuebec16385
ConservativeMajkot, RichardOntario16335
ConservativeDeSouza, TroyBritish Columbia16326
ConservativeSprovieri, JohnOntario16310
ConservativeLynch, PatNew Brunswick16294
ConservativeBoseovski, JovanOntario16247
LiberalCarr, GaryOntario28498
LiberalLongfield, JudiOntario25882
LiberalTorsney, PaddyOntario25414
LiberalIanno, TonyOntario25086
LiberalGodbout, MarcOntario24215
LiberalBerthiaume, RenéOntario22786
LiberalMacklin, PaulOntario22563
LiberalCarroll, AileenOntario22476
LiberalMcLellan, AnneAlberta22221
LiberalGraham, KarenOntario22083
LiberalPowers, RussOntario21630
LiberalLastewka, WaltOntario21424
LiberalLloyd, DianeOntario20512
LiberalFarnworth, LeeOntario20244
LiberalSaada, JacquesQuebec20190
LiberalGaffney, MichaelOntario20111
LiberalBurroughs, GaryOntario20099
LiberalWhelan, SusanOntario19508
LiberalMahoney, RichardOntario19458
LiberalPeric, JankoOntario19420
LiberalMyers, LynnOntario19245
LiberalValeri, TonyOntario18878
LiberalKelly, BillOntario18697
LiberalBakopanos, EleniQuebec18594
LiberalMitchell, AndyOntario18505
LiberalBulte, Sarmite SamOntario18489
LiberalKirley, ElizabethOntario18389
LiberalSpeller, BobOntario18366
LiberalVaughan, BobOntario18034
LiberalGarneau, MarcQuebec17768
LiberalCarter, HeatherOntario17712
Bloc QuébécoisGagnon, SébastienQuebec20494
Bloc QuébécoisClavet, RogerQuebec20051
Bloc QuébécoisMarceau, RichardQuebec19038
Bloc QuébécoisSimard, ChristianQuebec18597
Bloc QuébécoisLabelle, GérardQuebec17693
Bloc QuébécoisPichette, ChristianeQuebec17527
Bloc QuébécoisLapierre, RéalQuebec16223
Bloc QuébécoisCharette, AlainQuebec15788
Bloc QuébécoisBoulianne, MarcQuebec15410
Bloc QuébécoisDesrochers, OdinaQuebec15402

Party Summary

PartyVotesProportionSenate Seats
PC Party144460%0
Independent774380.5%0
Green Party6659404.4%4
WBP10940%0
N.D.P.259080817.4%18
AACEV Party of Canada720%0
Libertarian30030%0
Christian Heritage Party282790.1%0
Conservative537090336.2%38
Canadian Action62010%0
Communist31270%0
FPNP13400%0
No Affiliation52050%0
Marxist-Leninist92890%0
Liberal447721730.2%31
Bloc Québécois155204310.4%10
Marijuana Party92750%0

Regional Summary

RegionSenate Seats
Ontario61
Prince Edward Island0
North-West Territories0
Nova Scotia2
Alberta4
Saskatchewan0
British Columbia17
Yukon0
Manitoba1
Quebec15
Newfoundland and Labrador0
New Brunswick1
Nunavut0

Caviats

  • Due to the rounding used, only 102 of the 105 senate seats are assigned in this model:
    Seats = int(percent-popular-vote*105)
  • I don't know what the difference between Independent and No Affiliation is.

Commentary

This first whack at a Proportional Representation system immediately highlights a weakness in the proposal: the seats are overwhelmingly from Ontario. This is a result of the close races between Conservative and Liberals in this region. Regions which elected their representatives by a landslide, or have a disproportionately high number of seats per capita (see parliamentary breakdown from 2004) are accordingly shut out of the Senate.

While I expected to see some regions present in a reduced way, the overwhelming number of Ontario seats is a surprise to me.

With this result the distinction between Independent and No Affiliation is academic, however should the combined vote approach qualification for a seat, the question arises regarding how to select the seat holder. My personal belief is that Independent candidates essentially represent themselves, so each candidate is effectively their own party and would therefore probably not qualify for a Senate seat.

Appendix

Both the raw data and the perl script use to generate these results are available (attached to this page).

  • The raw data is from the Elections Canada website, downloaded the morning of January 24 2006. The header fields and footer fields have been manually removed from the original download; all other data is original.
  • The perl script was written by me and is released without warranty of any kind (ie the >>Don't Worry, Be Happy; Now Go Away License).
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